Reliable Predictors for Future Presidential Elections

by Steven Smith

posted 12.06.04


Many political pundits woke up the morning following last month’s election and scratched their heads when they saw the polling totals. A discrepancy between the exit polling and the hard data left them wondering how such a close race had, overnight, skewed so heavily in favor of George W. Bush. The problem lay in the inaccuracy of the exit polling numbers. Had the punditry chosen a more reliable predictor they, could have bypassed their confusion completely.

Mrs. Ellison’s 4th Grade Special Needs Class:

Every four years, Mrs. Ellison, a special needs teacher in Bozeman, Montana, asks her class who they think will be elected President. The students are given a variety of craft supplies (Playdoh, popsicle sticks, glitter, pipe cleaners) with which to craft their vote. The submissions ranged from a hunk of gray clay and Popsicle sticks that resembled skewered, three-legged cats to a portrait painted with equal parts poster paint and drool. One child simply blew her nose in the palm of her hand then wiped it on a scrap of butcher paper. Mrs. Ellison assured us that the children’s artwork showed overwhelming support for President Bush. She then excused herself in order to tend to a Tommy Wilkins, who had just then filled his pants with feces.

Beltway Prostitutes:

Long a favorite of hard-core political strategists, the sex workers inside the Beltway have the advantage of intimate contact with the men and women that make decisions which affect the entire nation. Lady Splendora in particular has been working the Beltway since she was “a cunt’s hair shy of 13.” You name the politician, Lady Splendora’s spent time with them. “If I hadda pick which group I liked best, it’d be dem puffy white fellas. All I ever do for them is squat over they face and squeeze out a little slice of Heaven. And they never seem to mind if I smoke my Kools while I does it!” Lady Splendora, whose biggest client happens to be GOP Svengali Karl Rove, called the election for President Bush back in June. “Let’s just say I got a sure feeling in my gut.” She then let loose a menacing laugh, which was cut short when she coughed up a wad of ejaculate.

Vegas Bookies:

Milwaukee-area freelance journalist Kevin Simmerson grew tired of relying on conventional news sources several years ago. This personal sea change happened to coincide with his termination at the Milwaukee Dispatch. Simmerson now rarely leaves his efficiency apartment except to place bets with his bookie in Vegas, via the pay phone on the corner. He claims that, as of late, he’s been able to cobble together some tips on the election from his bookie. “Those old Vegas guys always know who has the inside track in a head-to-head race like this. Like last week, I asked him who was gonna win, Bush or Kerry? And he says, ‘What do I look like, some kinda Yankee Doodle Dandy?’ Then he told me if I ask again, he’d ‘break my fucking legs.’ So I asked him if this threat was an endorsement for Bush. You know, ‘cuz the Bush administration effectively broke the legs of the Head Start program by under funding it. My bookie said, ‘If you don’t make a bet real quick, I’ll fly to Wisconsin and put my Marlboro out on your fucking eye.’ What can I say? Looks like the next four years are going to be a great time to be a Republican.”

Highland High School’s Model Congress:

One organization in America has managed to succeed where the political think tanks and polling organizations have failed. At least when it comes to predicting the preferences of the American electorate. Highland High School’s Model Congress has accurately predicted the winner of the highest office in the land, without ever venturing past the cloistered safety of a Portland, Oregon suburb.

During an interview, this year’s team captain, Senior Mitch Edgar, had trouble limiting his comments to the election. “I was saying ‘Bush’ from the beginning,” Edgar said before removing his retainer and placing it in a glass of water and Alka Seltzer. “It helps my halitosis if I soak it three times a day. You know, we could continue this off campus if you’d like. I’m a senior so I get a whole hour for lunch.”

At that point Theresa Grossman, a Model Congresswoman and Highland High School Junior interrupted the interview. “Is he still bragging about his senior lunch privileges? Jeez, it’s almost December. Get over it.”

At this point Edgar lashed out at the Junior Congresswoman. “You’re just mad ‘cuz you voted for Kerry.”

To which Ms. Grossman shot back, “Eat a dick, queermo.”

America’s youth: our most precious resource.

Asians:

You’re not alone in thinking that these people are really, really smart? I mean they study all the time, so they’d better be. It’s no surprise that they’ve known the outcome of every election since Hoover. Because they know, like, everything.

Acute Schizophrenics:

When a picture of each candidate was placed in front of mental health patients at the Rainbow Grove Wellness Center for the Beleaguered, the results leaned heavily in favor of a Bush victory. Patients presented with a picture of Senator Kerry reported, at the most, a shimmering metallic light around the candidate’s head. On the other hand, those who were given Bush photos to study saw a rending of the heavens and an outpouring of black blood, heavy with the scent of screaming babies. FOUR MORE YEARS! FOUR MORE YEARS!

A Small Group of Old, Wealthy, And Impotent White Men:

What? Did you think elections just rigged themselves? You find yourself a small group of old, wealthy, impotent white men and you’re likely to find, at their center, the future President of this great land.

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